# Is Boeing's Starliner Finally Getting Back to the ISS?

Boeing has confirmed in an SEC Form 10-Q filing dated July 28 that it now expects to complete an uncrewed Starliner cargo mission — designated Starliner-1 — **no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2026**, slipping past a previous expectation of flying both an uncrewed and a crewed mission during 2026. The company has already absorbed approximately $2 billion in charges on the [Commercial Crew Program](https://orbital-intel.com/glossary/commercial-crew) to date, and CEO Kelly Ortberg stated on Boeing's Q2 earnings call that he does not anticipate another material charge before the spacecraft returns to flight — though he acknowledged residual uncertainty in scheduling negotiations with NASA.

The core issue is no longer purely technical. Ortberg characterized the redesign work on Starliner's thruster and helium leak deficiencies as "going quite well," but said the timing of both the uncrewed Starliner-1 mission and subsequent crewed flights hinges on how NASA restructures its ISS launch sequence. NASA's own schedule for crew and cargo missions through late 2026 did not originally include a slot for Starliner-1, leaving Boeing waiting on ISS traffic management decisions that are largely outside its control.

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## What Went Wrong on the Crew Flight Test — and What's Being Fixed

Starliner's Crew Flight Test, which launched two years prior to this report, suffered thruster malfunctions and helium leaks during the mission to the [Low Earth Orbit](https://orbital-intel.com/glossary/leo) ISS. NASA elected to return the spacecraft uncrewed rather than risk the two astronauts aboard — Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams — who ultimately spent nine months on the station before returning aboard a [SpaceX](https://orbital-intel.com/companies/spacex) Crew Dragon.

That decision effectively grounded Starliner pending resolution of those anomalies. Boeing has not provided detailed public technical updates on the specific fixes, but Ortberg's comments on the earnings call suggest internal confidence in the engineering work. The more cautious read came from NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel: at a June 22 ASAP meeting, committee members stated that addressing those problems was still ongoing and that it could take **up to a year** for Starliner to fly again on the Starliner-1 cargo mission — which will itself function as an additional test flight, not a routine operational run.

That ASAP language, reported just five weeks before Boeing's own SEC disclosure, is worth flagging. A Q4 2026 target for an uncrewed flight is technically consistent with "up to a year" from late June, but it leaves almost no schedule margin if any technical findings emerge during final review.

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## The Scheduling Problem Is Now Largely NASA's ISS Manifest

Bill Spetch, NASA's ISS operations and integration manager, told a briefing in May that launch opportunities for Starliner-1 remained under review. "Our schedule is pretty busy, but we're trying to maintain windows where we can go fly that," he said. The ISS manifest through late 2026 is congested — between crew rotation flights, commercial resupply missions, and the program's own operational tempo, inserting a vehicle that requires dedicated berthing time and close-out work is non-trivial.

Ortberg framed the situation clearly on the earnings call: "As NASA's replanning their launch sequence, that'll have some impact to when we're actually doing the launch. We've got to work with NASA to align on when the launches are going to be, both the crewed and uncrewed launches, going forward."

Boeing's SEC filing added a significant caveat: "We and NASA are currently in discussions regarding timing and requirements for follow-on missions, and the outcome of those discussions is uncertain." That language — in a legal disclosure document, not a press release — suggests the crewed mission cadence after Starliner-1 remains genuinely unsettled, not just pending final scheduling.

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## ULA's Vulcan Centaur Crisis Adds a Separate Boeing Exposure

Boeing's 10-Q also confirmed a separate financial exposure that compounds the Starliner picture. Boeing owns a 50% stake in United Launch Alliance alongside Lockheed Martin. Per Boeing's SEC filing, both Boeing and Lockheed each agreed in May 2026 to guarantee **$500 million** of certain ULA credit facilities maturing on July 30, 2027 — a response to what Lockheed's own 10-Q filing (July 23) described as ULA's Vulcan Centaur grounding "negatively affecting ULA's financial condition."

ULA confirmed on July 24 that it sought the loan guarantee, citing "financial challenges." Boeing's filing was blunt: "We and Lockheed expect to provide additional financial support and could incur losses if ULA is unable to resume Vulcan launches consistent with ULA's assumptions."

Boeing had not previously confirmed its participation in the guarantee — it did not respond to a July 24 inquiry on the subject — making the 10-Q disclosure the first official confirmation. For Boeing's defense and space segment, which Ortberg described as working through a series of troubled fixed-price contracts, the ULA contingent liability sits on top of ongoing Starliner uncertainty.

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## What This Means for the Broader Commercial Crew Picture

The operational reality heading into 2027 is that [SpaceX](https://orbital-intel.com/companies/spacex)'s Crew Dragon remains NASA's sole crewed transportation system to the ISS, a position it has now held by default for over two years. NASA designed the [Commercial Crew Program](https://orbital-intel.com/glossary/commercial-crew) explicitly to avoid single-provider dependence — the same logic that drove dual-source contracting in launch. That redundancy has not materialized in practice.

For Boeing, the path forward requires threading three needles simultaneously: completing technical closure on the Starliner-1 design fixes to satisfy NASA and the ASAP, securing a viable slot in NASA's congested ISS manifest, and doing so without triggering another financial charge that would further pressure a defense and space unit already carrying significant cost overruns across multiple programs.

The Q4 2026 target is achievable on paper. Whether it holds depends on technical reviews, ISS traffic management decisions, and a NASA-Boeing scheduling negotiation that Boeing itself describes as having an "uncertain" outcome.

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## Key Takeaways

- **Boeing's SEC 10-Q filing (July 28)** officially moves the Starliner-1 uncrewed cargo mission to no earlier than Q4 2026, abandoning the earlier expectation of both uncrewed and crewed flights in 2026.
- **Boeing has absorbed approximately $2 billion** in Starliner program charges to date; CEO Ortberg does not anticipate another charge before return to flight, but acknowledged uncertainty.
- **NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (June 22)** stated resolution of Starliner's technical deficiencies could take up to a year — language that is consistent with, but not comfortable for, a Q4 2026 uncrewed flight target.
- **Starliner-1 was absent** from NASA's published ISS cargo and crew mission schedule through late 2026; NASA's Spetch said windows are "under review."
- **Separately, Boeing confirmed** it joined Lockheed in guaranteeing $500 million each in ULA credit facilities, with explicit warning it could incur losses if Vulcan Centaur does not resume launches on schedule.
- **SpaceX Crew Dragon** continues as NASA's only operational crew transport to ISS, the single-source dependency the Commercial Crew Program was architected to prevent.

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## Frequently Asked Questions

**When will Boeing's Starliner fly next?**
Per Boeing's July 28 SEC 10-Q filing, the next Starliner mission — an uncrewed cargo flight called Starliner-1 — is expected no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2026. A subsequent crewed mission timeline remains under discussion with NASA and is described by Boeing as having an uncertain outcome.

**How much money has Boeing lost on Starliner?**
Boeing has taken approximately $2 billion in charges on the Starliner program to date, as stated by CEO Kelly Ortberg on the company's Q2 2026 earnings call. The company said it does not currently anticipate an additional charge before the spacecraft returns to flight.

**Why did Starliner stop flying after the Crew Flight Test?**
The Crew Flight Test mission suffered thruster malfunctions and helium leaks. NASA determined the risk profile was unacceptable for a crewed return and brought the spacecraft back uncrewed. The two NASA astronauts aboard — who had originally planned a short stay — remained on the ISS for nine months before returning on a SpaceX Crew Dragon.

**What is Starliner-1 and why is it cargo-only?**
Starliner-1 is Boeing's next planned mission, configured as a cargo-only flight to the ISS. Despite being the first post-CFT mission, it will function as an additional test flight, allowing Boeing and NASA to validate the design fixes to Starliner's thruster and helium systems before returning astronauts to the vehicle.

**What is the ULA Vulcan Centaur situation and how does it affect Boeing?**
Vulcan Centaur is currently grounded, which ULA has acknowledged is negatively affecting its financial condition. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin — ULA's co-owners — each guaranteed $500 million in ULA credit facilities in May 2026. Boeing's 10-Q warned that both owners expect to provide additional financial support and could face losses if Vulcan does not resume launches consistent with ULA's financial assumptions.